From fragile to strategic

Before Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the fragility of global supply chains was understood primarily through the lens of systemic accidents and efficiency-driven vulnerabilities. Pandemic-related disruptions highlighted the risks of just-in-time production models, a problem compounded by decades of companies limiting their inventories. Major logistical failures, such as the Suez Canal blockage by the Ever Given, were interpreted not as isolated incidents but as an omen of a global problem inherent in the architecture of global trade. These events exposed the brittleness of the system, but the disruptions themselves were seen as unintentional consequences of globalisation, a virus, or human error, rather than deliberate acts of interstate conflict.

The war in Ukraine fundamentally altered this calculus, demonstrating how these same networks could be actively weaponised. Analysis quickly concluded that because of the war, global economics would never be the same, moving beyond logistical shocks to strategic confrontation. Russia's naval blockade and its impact on grain exports explicitly instrumentalised the geopolitics of food, turning agricultural trade into a point of coercive leverage. Simultaneously, efforts to isolate Russia economically revealed how supply chains become battlegrounds for sanctions enforcement and evasion. The continued flow of valuable commodities, with Russian gems being reclassified in India to circumvent sanctions, illustrates that the infrastructure of global commerce is now a contested domain of state power.